Economic growth rate will be 7.8 percent in the second quarter, 9.4 percent in the whole financial year: Report
In this report of HDFC Bank, it has been estimated that the low base of last year will be the main reason behind the projected growth rate of 7.8 percent in the second quarter.
New Delhi :
The official growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated at 7.8 percent on an annual basis in the September quarter of the current financial year. This has been claimed in a report prepared by the economists of HDFC Bank. According to this report released on Wednesday, the real GDP will grow at the rate of 9.4 percent in the year 2021-22. However, it is expected to come down to 7.5 per cent in the year 2022-23.
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In the year 2020-21, a contraction of 7.3 percent was seen in the GDP due to the strong hit of the pandemic. For the year 2021-22, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has forecast a growth of 9.5 percent, while in the year 2022-23 it has been said to slow down to 7.8 percent. In fact, in the year 2020-21, the condition of the economy was not good, due to which the base for the current financial year is low and this low base is being cited as the main reason behind the high growth rate this year. In the first quarter of the current financial year, there was a jump of about 20 percent in GDP due to the low base. As far as the official figures for the second quarter ended September are concerned, it is expected to come on November 30.
In this report of HDFC Bank, it has been estimated that the low base of last year will be the main reason behind the projected growth rate of 7.8 percent in the second quarter. However, the effect of the increase in economic activity in this quarter will also be visible. In July-September, 2020, there was a contraction of 16.9 percent in GDP.
“Economic activity recovered from the pre-epidemic wave of the pandemic in early August and has remained strong since, supported by suppressed demand and the lifting of travel restrictions,” the report said.
According to this report, the growth rate of the agriculture sector will be 4 percent in the September quarter, while it will be 6.3 percent in the industry sector and 8.6 percent for the service sector. If we look at the gross value-added point of view, then the growth rate in the second quarter can be 7.3 percent.
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